PEACE GAMES WITH GLOBALLY INTERCONNECTED COMPUTERS
Part 1
by Parker Rossman and Takeshi Utsumi


The technology now exists to interconnect hundreds or thousands of personal computers, in different countries, through distributed networks and information processing, into modeling and simulation instruments for playing "peace games" on the scale of Pentagon war games.

To some people, "peace games" evokes an image of a little game played on a computer screen. Here we define peace games as research and planning to manage complex problems and to test alternatives on a global scale. (The term "peace games" was coined by T. Utsumi in 1971. See Simulation, November 1977, p. 135. For more background, see "GLOSAS Project" and "Peace Games with Open Modeling Network" in Computer Networks and Simulation II and III, respectively, edited by S. Schoemaker, North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1982 and 1986.)

It is now possible to combine existing technologies and more holistic explorations of various scenarios in solving global social problems. All kinds of possibilities for waging peace can be explored through computer simulations to see what might work and to project results before risks are actually taken.

Developing expertise in modeling and gaming can be combined in global systems, with a cascading effect, to empower explorations of new international institutions, or to remodel existing ones. New precision can come into the diagnosis of problems and the definition of issues and alternatives.

Society has vast amounts of data that are not adequately brought to bear in solving many kinds of problems because the information is scattered, uncoordinated, and not available when needed. We need tools to put this data together. When the meaningful data is pulled together, computer modeling can be used to help in making important decisions, models which incorporate more and more knowledge about people and institutions.

Computer models can serve as increasingly complex models of governments and of how leaders think. They can be helpful for testing ideas and possible actions. Some preliminary thought about waging peace through simulations was offered by A. D. Carroll, who said we must use these powerful new tools to understand how the human mind functions in peace and war. (See Carroll's "Can Computers Be Used for Peace," Media Development, U.K., 2, 1983.)


THE GLOSAS PROJECT
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The GLOSAS (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation) Project was conceived by Tak Utsumi in 1972. It proposes gaming solutions on a very large scale to help decision-makers deal with interwoven problems. (See T. Utsumi, Proceedings of the 1980 Winter Simulation Conference, No. 2, Simulation with Discrete Models: A State of the Art View, Orlando, FL, Dec. 3-5, 1980, pp. 165- 217.)

The GLOSAS Project seeks to construct a "Globally Distributed Decision Support System" for a plus-sum peace game. This involves combining the power of global multimedia communication networks, teleconferencing and computer conferencing, simulation and gaming methodologies, electronic data banks and indexing, expert systems, computer bulletin boards, and "situation rooms." It is not computers doing people's thinking; rather it is mind-empowerment tools to help people do better thinking.

The GLOSAS project has paved the way by working for deregulations of communication policies in Japan and elsewhere to facilitate the extension of Value Added Networks (VANs) to other countries and the uses of electronic mail and computer conferences via the extension lines. It has also led to experiments to extend U.S. educational courses via computer conferencing to Japan and other countries. (A spin-off benefit of the project is to make possible international activities, such as the Ikego Forest Project reported by Izumi Aizu in NETWEAVER, Volume 1, Number 5.)

Solving global problems, providing justice and welfare, and warning of dangers and threats requires more and more sophisticated models of an emerging global system. The value of such tools will be determined by their success in helping people solve the most desperate social problems.

A great deal of modeling experience is available in political science, economic models, and strategic decision modeling. The Club of Rome is an international group of world modelers that seeks to call major world problems to the attention of society as a whole through building large-scale simulations. The work of the Club of Rome begins to show how collective work can be undertaken by a "community of minds," by collective intelligence.


WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY DEMONSTRATION
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How are these games, or simulations, undertaken? At the World Future Society Conference to be held in New York City in July 1986, United Nations and American Arbitration Association personnel plan to demonstrate "computer-assisted negotiations" related to a specific scenario. This will be done via computer conferencing and slow-scan TV in New York, using A. Onishi's FUGI model in Japan.

FUGI is a computer-aided global macroeconomic model on the interdependent world economy. It aims to forecast for 62 countries/regions economic factors, such as economic growth rate, employment, wages, prices, money supply, interest rates, public finance, trade, private capital movement, international balance of payment, and foreign exchange rates. (See Onishi's "A Macroeconomic Study on the Future of Global Interdependence," Proceedings of the 1985 SEDC Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control, Washington, DC, June 1983. Other papers include his "A New Approach to Global Modeling," UN Inter-Agency Working Group, 12th session, Geneva, Switzerland, June 1984).

Other possible uses of simulation modeling for international issues include the creation of scenarios about alternative structures for the United Nations, global police forces, strategies for monitoring potential crises in advance, modeling cases that are not allowed to come before the World Court to see what the outcome might be, and so forth.


EXPANDING EXISTING MODELS
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As any given game enlarges and becomes complex, dimensions of it can be divided among groups in different places. As data banks are developed, more and more groups can involve themselves in continuing computer conferences, allowing more and more people to put their heads together. Amateurs, therefore, in a spirit of play, can explore possibilities that are not yet possible for official agencies. By simulating disarmament alternatives, for example, there is no risk of destroying anything in our real world, but the way can be paved to encourage optimism instead of pessimism.

A next step in preparing for large-scale peace gaming is expected to be experimentation with using and expanding the Onishi FUGI model, which already has data bases from many countries. The FUGI model has already been used by the United Nations and various governments for economic and other simulations.

In enlarging the FUGI model, the submodels of individual countries will be distributed to computers located in varying countries. Each data base will be autonomously maintained and improved by experts of the individual countries. The submodels will be interconnected via global VANs in such a way that the integration of them all will act as a single global model. Software can then be developed to make available scenarios and to share experience with, and lessons from, interactive games among experts of various countries.

War games must be secret, but peace strategizing can involve many qualified persons. In time there can be global game plans which groups, large and small, global and local, can plug into and use. An important use will be for educating and training negotiators, political scientists, and students of international affairs. Education, through computer networks and conferencing of this type, can be an important forerunner for world peace and progress. (For a more journalistic introduction to some of these ideas see, P. Rossman, COMPUTERS: BRIDGES TO THE FUTURE," Judson Press, Valley Forge, PA, 1985).

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Authors' note: Parker Rossman, Ph.D. if former Dean of
Ecumenical Continuing Education Center of Yale University. He is
author of COMPUTERS: BRIDGES TO THE FUTURE, about the potential
impact of forthcoming fifth-generation computer tools on
research, religion, the shape of thought, and action in quest
for peace. He is writing a book for lay readers on peace games.
He can be reached at P. O. Box 382, Niantic, CT 06357-0382;
(203) 739-5195.

Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., is President of Global Information
Services and Technical Director of the Japan GLOSAS Association,
responsible for using advanced computers, telecommunications,
systems analysis, and simulation technology to seek solutions to
world wide problems. He is completing a technical book on what
is proposed in this document. He can be reached at 43-23 Colden
Street, Flushing, NY 11355-3998; (718) 939-0928; EIES 492.